AS Eupen 2-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise meet at Stadion am Kehrweg in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
AS Eupen's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Eupen have posted 2W 1D 2L at Stadion am Kehrweg — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion am Kehrweg this season.
Union St. Gilloise have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for AS Eupen, 1.90 for Union St. Gilloise — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 73% and Union St. Gilloise 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Eupen 73% | Union St. Gilloise 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.14 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.928 / defence 1.187 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.082 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.420. Data: 11 AS Eupen games / 11 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 24% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 53%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 1.89. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 80% | Union St. Gilloise 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 24% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG AS Eupen 1.14 / Union St. Gilloise 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.928 / def 1.187 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.082 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Union St. Gilloise xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
AS Eupen 2 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 24% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.93) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.08x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
24%
4.22
23%
4.36
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.96
1.82
Union St. Gilloise xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
26.15
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.82 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Eupen come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 2D 3L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (7W 1D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for AS Eupen against 2.00 for Union St. Gilloise. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Eupen's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Eupen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.18 scored and 1.00 conceded. AS Eupen's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.40 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
1
Draws
5
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2023, when AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for AS Eupen, 60% for Union St. Gilloise — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for AS Eupen and 80% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of AS Eupen's games and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of AS Eupen's matches and 80% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out AS Eupen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat AS Eupen 2-3 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.14 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.82 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 24% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 53%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 73%, Union St. Gilloise 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.82 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.