Zulte Waregem 2-6 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Genk meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genk (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Zulte Waregem, 1.60 for Genk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zulte Waregem register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, Genk in 83%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 83% and Genk 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zulte Waregem 83% | Genk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.93 xG and Genk 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.019 / defence 1.485 | Genk attack 0.863 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.468. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Zulte Waregem games / 12 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 21% | Genk 38%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | Genk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 83% | Genk 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 21% | Genk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.93 / Genk 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.019 / def 1.485 | Genk attack 0.863 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Genk xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Genk kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 6 Genk.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Genk part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Genk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 40% chance of winning, Genk a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Genk in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Genk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.02x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.86x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
40%
2.48
21%
4.71
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.81
1.88
Genk xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.64
Clean Sheet
15%
6.56
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.88 for Genk, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 4D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.42 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.75 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Genk in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Genk have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.83 PPG; Genk away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 2-6 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Genk have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Zulte Waregem, 83% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zulte Waregem and 67% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Zulte Waregem's games and 83% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 67% of Genk's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Genk tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Genk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Zulte Waregem 2-6 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.93 xG and Genk 1.88 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Genk outscored their 1.88 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.02 / defence 1.49 against Genk attack 0.86 / defence 1.47, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 21% | Genk 38%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 83%, Genk 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.08 PPG, Genk 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.