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Shock result as Anderlecht defy the odds to beat Charleroi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Anderlecht beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.14 xG and Anderlecht 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Anderlecht attack 1.04 / defence 0.71, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Anderlecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Anderlecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Anderlecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights