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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charleroi have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Charleroi, 1.60 for Anderlecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Anderlecht hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Anderlecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Anderlecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Anderlecht 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.14 xG and Anderlecht 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.043 / defence 0.874 | Anderlecht attack 1.045 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.135. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Charleroi games / 55 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Anderlecht 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Anderlecht 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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