Standard Liege 1-0 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Standard Liege welcome OH Leuven to Stade Maurice Dufrasne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stade Maurice Dufrasne — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Standard Liege are significantly better at Stade Maurice Dufrasne than their overall form suggests.
OH Leuven — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Standard Liege) versus 1.20 (OH Leuven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 50% versus OH Leuven 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 47% | OH Leuven 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.04 xG and OH Leuven 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.626 / defence 0.834 | OH Leuven attack 0.934 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.208. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Standard Liege games / 58 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | OH Leuven 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 50% | OH Leuven 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Standard Liege 1.04 / OH Leuven 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.626 / def 0.834 | OH Leuven attack 0.934 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.94
OH Leuven xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs OH Leuven kick off?
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Standard Liege 1 - 0 OH Leuven.
Where is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven part of?
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 37% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Standard Liege and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and OH Leuven in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.63x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.12
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.98
0.94
OH Leuven xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.94 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 18D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OH Leuven sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (19W 15D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.29 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Standard Liege's home form reads 11W 8D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, OH Leuven have taken 1.00 points per game from 28 outings (7W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.50 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 19W 15D 24L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or OH Leuven away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.46 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Standard Liege have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Standard Liege's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Standard Liege
3
Draws
5
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 2, OH Leuven have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Standard Liege 2-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 43%, OH Leuven 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Standard Liege) and 64% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 64% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Standard Liege's recent games and 64% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out OH Leuven 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat OH Leuven 1-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.04 xG and OH Leuven 0.94 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OH Leuven landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.63 / defence 0.83 against OH Leuven attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 47%, OH Leuven 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
OH Leuven's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.29 PPG, OH Leuven 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.