AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 39%, yet in-form St. Truiden provide a compelling counter-argument — this AS Eupen vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kehrwegstadion plays host to AS Eupen versus St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
AS Eupen (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Kehrwegstadion, AS Eupen have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, St. Truiden are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: AS Eupen 2W, St. Truiden 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 53% versus St. Truiden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 55% | St. Truiden 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.42 xG and St. Truiden 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.674 / defence 1.210 | St. Truiden attack 0.893 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.239. AS Eupen's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing AS Eupen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 AS Eupen games / 62 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 39% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 35%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | St. Truiden 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Eupen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St. Truiden (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Eupen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | St. Truiden 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 39% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG AS Eupen 1.42 / St. Truiden 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.674 / def 1.210 | St. Truiden attack 0.893 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.34
St. Truiden xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs St. Truiden kick off?
AS Eupen vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
AS Eupen 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden part of?
AS Eupen vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 39% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AS Eupen and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
Record (5 meetings): AS Eupen 2W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are AS Eupen and St. Truiden in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.67) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.89x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.93
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.76
1.34
St. Truiden xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.34 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Eupen come into this having played 62 games, going 13W 10D 39L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.27 PPG from 62 outings (20W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AS Eupen's home form reads 7W 6D 18L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (7W 11D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Eupen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 13W 10D 39L in their last 62 games (0.79 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.87 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
AS Eupen
1
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 3, St. Truiden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 61%, St. Truiden 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (AS Eupen) and 52% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: AS Eupen have failed to score in 29% of games; St. Truiden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of AS Eupen's games and 55% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of AS Eupen's recent games and 52% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and St. Truiden tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Eupen edge out St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.42 xG and St. Truiden 1.34 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.67 / defence 1.21 against St. Truiden attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 39% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 35%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 55%, St. Truiden 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with AS Eupen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.