Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Gent meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stade Joseph Mariën, Union St. Gilloise have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gent have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gent's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Gent's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Gent and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Gent — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 69% and Gent 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 68% | Gent 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.07 xG and Gent 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.201 / defence 1.000 | Gent attack 1.067 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.242. Data: 62 Union St. Gilloise games / 62 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 55% | Draw 21% | Gent 24%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Gent 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 80% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 55% | Draw 21% | Gent 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.07 / Gent 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.201 / def 1.000 | Gent attack 1.067 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Gent xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 1 Gent.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 55% chance of winning, Gent a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Record (1 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 0W | Draws 1 | Gent 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Gent (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.20x the league average against Gent's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.07x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.72
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.39
1.33
Gent xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
3%
32.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.33 for Gent, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 68 games, going 46W 13D 9L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.69 PPG from 68 outings (32W 19D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Gent — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 25W 4D 5L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.56 points per game from 34 outings (15W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.88 scored and 1.19 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Gent in 60%.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 13D 9L in their last 68 games (2.22 PPG), while Gent have gone 32W 19D 17L in their last 68 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Gent away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.32 PPG; Gent away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
6
Draws
0
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Gent have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 65%, Gent 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Union St. Gilloise and 53% for Gent. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Gent?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 50% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 53% of Gent's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Gent tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Gent in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise and Gent share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise and Gent finished level at 1-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.07 xG and Gent 1.33 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 1.00 against Gent attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 55% | Draw 21% | Gent 24%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 68%, Gent 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.