Anderlecht 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (76%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Anderlecht face AS Eupen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Anderlecht host AS Eupen at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Anderlecht stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Anderlecht's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Eupen — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
AS Eupen's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Anderlecht are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Anderlecht: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for AS Eupen, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Anderlecht 3–1 AS Eupen — a Anderlecht win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Anderlecht and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 62% versus AS Eupen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 55% | AS Eupen 55%). Note also that AS Eupen surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Anderlecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.37 xG and AS Eupen 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.280 / defence 0.849 | AS Eupen attack 0.619 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.264. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack rating of 1.280 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AS Eupen's attack rating of 0.619 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Data: built from Anderlecht's last 60 games and AS Eupen's last 61.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 76% | Draw 16% | AS Eupen 9%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.32 | Draw 6.29 | AS Eupen 11.64. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (76%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Anderlecht's last 10 home games and AS Eupen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Anderlecht 80% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 76% | Draw 16% | AS Eupen 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Anderlecht 2.37 / AS Eupen 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.280 / def 0.849 | AS Eupen attack 0.619 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.66
AS Eupen xG
44%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Anderlecht vs AS Eupen FAQs
What time does Anderlecht vs AS Eupen kick off?
Anderlecht vs AS Eupen kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Anderlecht 1 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Anderlecht vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs AS Eupen part of?
Anderlecht vs AS Eupen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 76% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Anderlecht and AS Eupen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Anderlecht vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.28x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Anderlecht's last 60 games and AS Eupen's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.29
9%
11.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.04
0.66
AS Eupen xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.29
16%
Draw
11.64
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
9%
10.74
Win to Nil
39%
2.57
1%
125.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Anderlecht vs AS Eupen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.66 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 29W 16D 15L from 60 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 37L across 60 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 15W 7D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 6W 4D 19L across their last 29 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.03 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
Anderlecht (Home) vs AS Eupen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Anderlecht
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Anderlecht vs AS Eupen Form FAQs
What form are Anderlecht and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 29W 16D 15L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or AS Eupen away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.79 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Anderlecht have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Feb 2022, when Anderlecht won Anderlecht 4-1 AS Eupen.
Anderlecht's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Anderlecht
1
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Anderlecht vs AS Eupen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and AS Eupen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Anderlecht have won 5, AS Eupen have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and AS Eupen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2024: Anderlecht 1-0 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and AS Eupen?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 66%, AS Eupen 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Anderlecht) and 52% (AS Eupen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Anderlecht vs AS Eupen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Anderlecht and AS Eupen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Anderlecht's games and 45% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Anderlecht and AS Eupen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Anderlecht's matches and 52% of AS Eupen's.
Do Anderlecht and AS Eupen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 62% of AS Eupen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out AS Eupen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.37 xG and AS Eupen 0.66 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.28 / defence 0.85 against AS Eupen attack 0.62 / defence 1.20, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 76% | Draw 16% | AS Eupen 9%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 55%, AS Eupen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.