St. Truiden 1-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs AS Eupen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and AS Eupen meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AS Eupen's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for St. Truiden, 2 for AS Eupen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 44% versus AS Eupen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | AS Eupen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.54 xG and AS Eupen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.763 / defence 1.044 | AS Eupen attack 0.948 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.284. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 St. Truiden games / 46 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 42% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 30%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | AS Eupen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 30% | AS Eupen 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 42% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG St. Truiden 1.54 / AS Eupen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.763 / def 1.044 | AS Eupen attack 0.948 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AS Eupen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kick off?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 November 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen part of?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 42% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both St. Truiden and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
Record (4 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and AS Eupen in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.76x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.95x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.59
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
AS Eupen xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.27 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 13D 18L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 11W 8D 27L from 46 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for St. Truiden against 0.89 for AS Eupen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 5W 3D 15L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.22 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 11W 8D 27L in their last 46 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or AS Eupen away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.35 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
1
Draws
3
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, AS Eupen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 35%, AS Eupen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (St. Truiden) and 61% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 44% of games; AS Eupen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 56% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of St. Truiden's recent games and 61% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and AS Eupen tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and AS Eupen finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.54 xG and AS Eupen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against AS Eupen attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 42% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 30%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, AS Eupen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
AS Eupen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.26 PPG, AS Eupen 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.