Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees St. Truiden travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antwerp — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Antwerp 1.70 PPG, St. Truiden 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Antwerp have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while St. Truiden have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Antwerp winning.
The historical record gives Antwerp a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
St. Truiden trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 43% versus St. Truiden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 45% | St. Truiden 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.99 xG and St. Truiden 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.133 / defence 1.250 | St. Truiden attack 1.179 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.379. Data: 33 Antwerp games / 32 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 39% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 40%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.56 | Draw 4.76 | St. Truiden 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.03 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Antwerp 40% | St. Truiden 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 39% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Antwerp 1.99 / St. Truiden 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.133 / def 1.250 | St. Truiden attack 1.179 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
2.03
St. Truiden xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs St. Truiden kick off?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Antwerp 1 - 4 St. Truiden.
Where is Antwerp vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs St. Truiden part of?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 39% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 40% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Antwerp and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Record (9 meetings): Antwerp 5W | Draws 3 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in?
Antwerp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
39%
2.57
21%
4.85
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Antwerp xG
Total xG
4.03
2.03
St. Truiden xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.01
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
5%
19.64
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Antwerp and 2.03 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 15W 9D 18L from 42 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 22W 7D 13L across 42 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antwerp heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 9W 4D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.55 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 22W 7D 13L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or St. Truiden away?
Antwerp's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.48 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 57%, St. Truiden 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Antwerp) and 52% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Antwerp's games and 57% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Antwerp's recent games and 52% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Antwerp 1-4 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.99 xG and St. Truiden 2.03 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.0 short of their projected output. St. Truiden outscored their 2.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.13 / defence 1.25 against St. Truiden attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 39% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 40%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 45%, St. Truiden 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.