Cercle Brugge 3-3 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden meet at Jan Breydel Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cercle Brugge's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cercle Brugge have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cercle Brugge at Jan Breydel Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jan Breydel Stadium this season.
St. Truiden have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cercle Brugge lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cercle Brugge — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cercle Brugge 68% and St. Truiden 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 60% | St. Truiden 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.32 xG and St. Truiden 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.951 / defence 1.095 | St. Truiden attack 1.043 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.326. Data: 31 Cercle Brugge games / 31 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 40%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 70% | St. Truiden 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.32 / St. Truiden 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.951 / def 1.095 | St. Truiden attack 1.043 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.51
St. Truiden xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Jan Breydel Stadium.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge 3 - 3 St. Truiden.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydel Stadium.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden part of?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 32% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Record (9 meetings): Cercle Brugge 4W | Draws 3 | St. Truiden 2W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.95x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.04x) against Cercle Brugge's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
32%
3.15
28%
3.60
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.83
1.51
St. Truiden xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.51 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 10W 12D 15L from 37 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 13L across 37 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cercle Brugge heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 3W 5D 10L from 18 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 8W 2D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.46 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 10W 12D 15L in their last 37 games (1.14 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 19W 5D 13L in their last 37 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 0.78 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cercle Brugge won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cercle Brugge have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
4
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 4, St. Truiden have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Cercle Brugge 3-3 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Cercle Brugge, 56% for St. Truiden — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Cercle Brugge and 56% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cercle Brugge's games and 56% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 56% of St. Truiden's.
Do Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Breydel Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden drew 3-3 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.32 xG and St. Truiden 1.51 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against St. Truiden attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 40%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 60%, St. Truiden 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.