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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Antwerp 0-1 at Bosuilstadion, Conference League Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.18 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charleroi's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.29 PPG, Charleroi 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights