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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out RWDM 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat RWDM 3-2 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.40 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RWDM outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.18 / defence 0.63 against RWDM attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 27% | RWDM 22%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 54%, RWDM 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

RWDM's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights