SK Beveren 2-0 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SK Beveren welcome Olympic Charleroi to Freethiel Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SK Beveren have gone 10W 0D 0L — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SK Beveren at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympic Charleroi — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 2.30 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 70% of Olympic Charleroi's (from SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Olympic Charleroi's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SK Beveren have won 1, Olympic Charleroi 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended SK Beveren 5–0 Olympic Charleroi — a SK Beveren win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Olympic Charleroi trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 58% versus Olympic Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 58% | Olympic Charleroi 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.84 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.174 / defence 0.695 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.013 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.358. SK Beveren have a tight defence (rating 0.695), which is pulling Olympic Charleroi's projected output down. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 53 games and Olympic Charleroi's last 24.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 58% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.72 | Draw 4.43 | Olympic Charleroi 5.21. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Olympic Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 60% (last 10 home games) | Olympic Charleroi 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 58% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG SK Beveren 1.84 / Olympic Charleroi 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.174 / def 0.695 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.013 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Olympic Charleroi xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
SK Beveren 2 - 0 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 58% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.17) and Olympic Charleroi's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympic Charleroi's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 53 games and Olympic Charleroi's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.43
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.80
0.96
Olympic Charleroi xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
32.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.96 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.75 PPG on a 21W 3D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Olympic Charleroi's form line: 3W 7D 14L from 24 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 2.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Olympic Charleroi.
Venue Form
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.83 PPG from their last 12 home games (11W 1D 0L).
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 4L from their last 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.67 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.88 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Olympic Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 21W 3D 0L in their last 24 games (2.75 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 7D 14L in their last 24 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.83 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.17 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Olympic Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Olympic Charleroi in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 2, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: SK Beveren 2-0 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 50%, Olympic Charleroi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 58% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Olympic Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SK Beveren's games and 67% of Olympic Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Beveren's recent games and 58% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Olympic Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 83% of Olympic Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Olympic Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Olympic Charleroi 2-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.84 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.96 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.17 / defence 0.69 against Olympic Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 58% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 19%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 58%, Olympic Charleroi 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.