Deinze 0-0 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs Patro Eisden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dakota Arena plays host to Deinze versus Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Deinze's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Deinze have posted 7W 2D 1L at Dakota Arena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Patro Eisden have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Deinze, 1 for Patro Eisden and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Deinze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Patro Eisden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 55% versus Patro Eisden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 55% | Patro Eisden 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.17 xG and Patro Eisden 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.221 / defence 0.862 | Patro Eisden attack 0.646 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.452. Patro Eisden's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Deinze games / 20 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 44% | Draw 30% | Patro Eisden 25%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Patro Eisden 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Deinze 60% | Patro Eisden 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 44% | Draw 30% | Patro Eisden 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Deinze 1.17 / Patro Eisden 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.221 / def 0.862 | Patro Eisden attack 0.646 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Deinze (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Patro Eisden xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Deinze vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Deinze 0 - 0 Patro Eisden.
Where is Deinze vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Patro Eisden part of?
Deinze vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 44% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Deinze and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Patro Eisden?
Record (1 meetings): Deinze 0W | Draws 0 | Patro Eisden 1W.
What form are Deinze and Patro Eisden in?
Deinze (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deinze's attack at 1.22x the league average against Patro Eisden's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (0.65x) against Deinze's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 42/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.30
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Deinze xG
Total xG
1.98
0.81
Patro Eisden xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Deinze and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Deinze and 0.81 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deinze come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 2D 6L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Deinze against 1.75 for Patro Eisden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Deinze's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (4W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deinze are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 12W 2D 6L in their last 20 games (1.90 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Patro Eisden away?
Deinze's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 2.22 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Deinze or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deinze have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Deinze
1
Draws
2
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Patro Eisden?
From 5 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Patro Eisden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Patro Eisden 3-1 Deinze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deinze see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 56%, Patro Eisden 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Deinze) and 33% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Deinze keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 56%; Patro Eisden in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Deinze's recent matches and 33% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deinze vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Deinze's recent games and 33% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Deinze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Deinze and Patro Eisden drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.17 xG and Patro Eisden 0.81 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Deinze fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Patro Eisden landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.22 / defence 0.86 against Patro Eisden attack 0.65 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 44% | Draw 30% | Patro Eisden 25%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 55%, Patro Eisden 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.90 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.