RSC Anderlecht II 5-0 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Olympic Charleroi at 41%, yet in-form RSC Anderlecht II provide a compelling counter-argument — this RSC Anderlecht II vs Olympic Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

RSC Anderlecht II host Olympic Charleroi at Lotto Park in Challenger Pro League (matchday 34). Kick-off is Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Olympic Charleroi have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Olympic Charleroi away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

RSC Anderlecht II are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, Olympic Charleroi 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2025, ended RSC Anderlecht II 2–0 Olympic Charleroi — a RSC Anderlecht II win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Olympic Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RSC Anderlecht II 58% versus Olympic Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 61% | Olympic Charleroi 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.29 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.778 / defence 1.149 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.899 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.397. RSC Anderlecht II's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Data: built from RSC Anderlecht II's last 60 games and Olympic Charleroi's last 31.

Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 34% | Draw 26% | Olympic Charleroi 41%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.98 | Draw 3.91 | Olympic Charleroi 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympic Charleroi at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RSC Anderlecht II (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympic Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RSC Anderlecht II's last 10 home games and Olympic Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RSC Anderlecht II 50% (last 10 home games) | Olympic Charleroi 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights