🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Patro Eisden welcome Francs Borains to Patrostadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Patro Eisden — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Patrostadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Patro Eisden are significantly better at Patrostadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Francs Borains's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Patro Eisden) versus 1.20 (Francs Borains). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Patro Eisden, 1 for Francs Borains and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Francs Borains winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Francs Borains in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 57% versus Francs Borains 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 50% | Francs Borains 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.895 / defence 1.201 | Francs Borains attack 0.855 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.397. Data: 60 Patro Eisden games / 60 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 37%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Francs Borains 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Patro Eisden 40% | Francs Borains 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights