Excelsior Virton 0-1 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior Virton vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Excelsior Virton welcome RWDM to Stade Yvan Georges. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton at Stade Yvan Georges this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 home games — 0.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RWDM stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM away from home this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 away games — 2.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. RWDM's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Excelsior Virton's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Excelsior Virton have won 0, RWDM 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with RWDM winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Excelsior Virton trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
RWDM trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior Virton 50% versus RWDM 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 50% | RWDM 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 0.86 xG and RWDM 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.695 / defence 1.464 | RWDM attack 0.923 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.504. Excelsior Virton's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Excelsior Virton games / 18 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 12% | Draw 26% | RWDM 62%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 8.33 | Draw 3.85 | RWDM 1.61. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RWDM at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior Virton 44% | RWDM 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 12% | Draw 26% | RWDM 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Excelsior Virton 0.86 / RWDM 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.695 / def 1.464 | RWDM attack 0.923 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: RWDM (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
2.03
RWDM xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs RWDM kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs RWDM kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs RWDM?
Excelsior Virton 0 - 1 RWDM.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs RWDM part of?
Excelsior Virton vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 12% chance of winning, RWDM a 62% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Excelsior Virton and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and RWDM?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 1 | RWDM 1W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and RWDM in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. RWDM (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior Virton's attack rating (0.69) and RWDM's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Excelsior Virton's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
12%
8.26
26%
3.81
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.89
2.03
RWDM xG
8.26
12%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
13%
7.61
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
2%
62.93
26%
3.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 2.03 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs RWDM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Excelsior Virton have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 3W 5D 10L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM's form line: 8W 5D 5L from 18 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RWDM are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior Virton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior Virton have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, RWDM have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.61 PPG overall record — RWDM travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.56 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and RWDM in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while RWDM have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 1.00 PPG; RWDM away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Excelsior Virton or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior Virton have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, RWDM in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior Virton and RWDM runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when RWDM won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior Virton's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior Virton
2
Draws
4
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and RWDM?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 0, RWDM have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 11 December 2022, when RWDM 3-1 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 50%, RWDM 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Excelsior Virton) and 50% (RWDM). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM in 38%; Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play RWDM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior Virton's games and 62% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Excelsior Virton's matches and 50% of RWDM's.
Do Excelsior Virton and RWDM tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RWDM in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RWDM edge out Excelsior Virton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Excelsior Virton 0-1 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 0.86 xG and RWDM 2.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior Virton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. RWDM landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.69 / defence 1.46 against RWDM attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 12% | Draw 26% | RWDM 62%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 50%, RWDM 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RWDM's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.