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RWDM cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Olympic Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RWDM beat Olympic Charleroi 0-2 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.66 xG and RWDM 1.75 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.52 / defence 1.38 against RWDM attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | RWDM 64%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 56%, RWDM 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

RWDM's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. RWDM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights