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Prediction vindicated as K. Lierse S.K. edge out Olympic Charleroi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat Olympic Charleroi 0-1 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 33, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 0.78 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 2.04 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.59 / defence 1.52 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 13% | Draw 20% | K. Lierse S.K. 67%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 60%, K. Lierse S.K. 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights