Olympic Charleroi 0-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stade de la Neuville plays host to Olympic Charleroi versus K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Olympic Charleroi have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Olympic Charleroi's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

K. Lierse S.K. away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On a straight form reading, K. Lierse S.K. are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Olympic Charleroi, 0 for K. Lierse S.K. and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Olympic Charleroi 0–0 K. Lierse S.K. — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Olympic Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 53% versus K. Lierse S.K. 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.78 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.588 / defence 1.524 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.954 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.402. Olympic Charleroi's attack rating of 0.588 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Olympic Charleroi's defence rating of 1.524 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output up. Data: built from Olympic Charleroi's last 30 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 59.

Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 13% | Draw 20% | K. Lierse S.K. 67%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 7.53 | Draw 5.01 | K. Lierse S.K. 1.50. The model has a clear lean to K. Lierse S.K. (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympic Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | K. Lierse S.K. 60% (last 10 away games).

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