Lommel United 3-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lommel United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Lommel United welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Soeverein Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United at Soeverein Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Soeverein Stadion this season.
RSC Anderlecht II — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lommel United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lommel United, 1 for RSC Anderlecht II and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 53% versus RSC Anderlecht II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.69 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.263 / defence 0.782 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.865 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.402. Lommel United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Lommel United games / 47 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 21%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | RSC Anderlecht II 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 40% | RSC Anderlecht II 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Lommel United 1.69 / RSC Anderlecht II 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.263 / def 0.782 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.865 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
RSC Anderlecht II xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Lommel United 3 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 55% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (3 meetings): Lommel United 0W | Draws 2 | RSC Anderlecht II 1W.
What form are Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Lommel United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.26x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.14
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.63
0.95
RSC Anderlecht II xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
25.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.95 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 9D 19L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II's form line: 17W 18D 22L from 57 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RSC Anderlecht II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (15W 3D 10L).
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 12W 7D 9L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.37 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 29W 9D 19L in their last 57 games (1.68 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 17W 18D 22L in their last 57 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Lommel United's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.71 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lommel United or RSC Anderlecht II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, RSC Anderlecht II in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when RSC Anderlecht II won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lommel United
3
Draws
2
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 8 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lommel United 2-0 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 46%, RSC Anderlecht II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lommel United) and 57% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play RSC Anderlecht II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lommel United's recent matches and 61% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lommel United's recent games and 57% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.69 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 0.95 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 55% | Draw 24% | RSC Anderlecht II 21%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 60%, RSC Anderlecht II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.