RSC Anderlecht II 0-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem meet at Stade Roi Baudouin in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RSC Anderlecht II have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Roi Baudouin this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zulte Waregem's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Zulte Waregem in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for RSC Anderlecht II, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 5–2 with RSC Anderlecht II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RSC Anderlecht II half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RSC Anderlecht II 62% and Zulte Waregem 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 61% | Zulte Waregem 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.25 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.946 / defence 1.038 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.169 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.435. Data: 46 RSC Anderlecht II games / 24 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 27% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 49%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Zulte Waregem 2.04. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RSC Anderlecht II 70% | Zulte Waregem 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Roi Baudouin • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 27% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.25 / Zulte Waregem 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.946 / def 1.038 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.169 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Zulte Waregem xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem?
RSC Anderlecht II 0 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Roi Baudouin.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 27% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): RSC Anderlecht II 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem in?
RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RSC Anderlecht II's attack rating (0.95) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.17x) against RSC Anderlecht II's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 46/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
27%
3.64
24%
4.24
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
2.99
1.74
Zulte Waregem xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
5%
20.76
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.74 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, RSC Anderlecht II have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 17W 18D 21L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 17W 13D 26L from 56 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for RSC Anderlecht II against 1.14 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RSC Anderlecht II have posted 0.93 PPG from 28 outings (5W 11D 12L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 12W 6D 10L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.59 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 17W 18D 21L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 0.93 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RSC Anderlecht II won 2-5 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RSC Anderlecht II
0
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RSC Anderlecht II 64%, Zulte Waregem 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for RSC Anderlecht II and 64% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RSC Anderlecht II play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 64% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RSC Anderlecht II vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 64% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
RSC Anderlecht II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out RSC Anderlecht II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat RSC Anderlecht II 0-1 at Stade Roi Baudouin, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.25 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.74 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RSC Anderlecht II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.17 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 27% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 49%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 61%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 1.23 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.