Deinze 2-3 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deinze vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Deinze welcome Francs Borains to Dakota Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Deinze — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze at Dakota Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Deinze have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Deinze, 0 for Francs Borains and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Deinze winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Deinze in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 56% versus Francs Borains 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 56% | Francs Borains 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 2.48 xG and Francs Borains 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.434 / defence 0.888 | Francs Borains attack 0.831 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.406. Deinze carry an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Deinze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Deinze games / 25 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 69% | Draw 17% | Francs Borains 14%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Francs Borains 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Deinze (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Deinze 60% | Francs Borains 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 69% | Draw 17% | Francs Borains 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 59% | xG Deinze 2.48 / Francs Borains 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.434 / def 0.888 | Francs Borains attack 0.831 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Deinze (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Francs Borains xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Francs Borains kick off?
Deinze vs Francs Borains kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Deinze 2 - 3 Francs Borains.
Where is Deinze vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Francs Borains part of?
Deinze vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 69% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deinze and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Francs Borains?
Record (1 meetings): Deinze 1W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are Deinze and Francs Borains in?
Deinze (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deinze's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
69%
1.45
17%
5.82
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.52
1.04
Francs Borains xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
8%
11.94
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
1%
85.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Deinze and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Deinze and 1.04 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 14W 4D 7L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains's form line: 8W 2D 15L from 25 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Deinze are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deinze have posted 2.25 PPG from 12 outings (8W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Deinze are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 3W 0D 9L from 12 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deinze are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.16 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 14W 4D 7L in their last 25 games (1.84 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 8W 2D 15L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Francs Borains away?
Deinze's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 2.25 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Deinze or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Francs Borains have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Francs Borains won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Deinze
0
Draws
2
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Francs Borains?
From 3 meetings on record, Deinze have won 1, Francs Borains have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Deinze 0-3 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deinze see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 58%, Francs Borains 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Deinze and 67% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deinze keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Francs Borains in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Deinze's recent matches and 50% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deinze vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Deinze's matches and 67% of Francs Borains's.
Do Deinze and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Francs Borains defy the odds to beat Deinze 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Deinze 2-3 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 2.48 xG and Francs Borains 1.04 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Francs Borains outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.43 / defence 0.89 against Francs Borains attack 0.83 / defence 1.36, drawn from 47/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 69% | Draw 17% | Francs Borains 14%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Francs Borains win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 56%, Francs Borains 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Francs Borains's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deinze (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.