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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lommel United and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United and Kortrijk finished level at 1-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.54 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Kortrijk attack 0.66 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lommel United 53% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 21%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 54%, Kortrijk 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lommel United's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Kortrijk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.36 PPG, Kortrijk 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights