Lommel United 1-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 53%, yet the head-to-head data favours Kortrijk — this Lommel United vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Kortrijk at Soevereinstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Lommel United have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Kortrijk — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.90 PPG versus Kortrijk's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Kortrijk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Lommel United. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Lommel United 2–4 Kortrijk — a Kortrijk win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Kortrijk have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 58% versus Kortrijk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 54% | Kortrijk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.54 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.143 / defence 0.932 | Kortrijk attack 0.662 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.386. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.662 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Lommel United's last 55 games and Kortrijk's last 25.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 53% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 21%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.87 | Draw 3.89 | Kortrijk 4.79. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lommel United 60% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Kortrijk | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 53% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Lommel United 1.54 / Kortrijk 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.143 / def 0.932 | Kortrijk attack 0.662 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Kortrijk xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs Kortrijk kick off?
Lommel United vs Kortrijk kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Lommel United 1 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Lommel United vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Kortrijk part of?
Lommel United vs Kortrijk is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 53% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lommel United and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Lommel United vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (1.14) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 55 games and Kortrijk's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.89
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.39
0.85
Kortrijk xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
4%
22.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.85 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 12D 22L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Kortrijk's form line: 25W 9D 21L from 55 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.36 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 27 home games (8W 7D 12L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 9W 5D 13L from their last 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.47 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
Lommel United (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Lommel United vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 25W 9D 21L in their last 55 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.15 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2024. They cover more than one competition — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lommel United
1
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 0, Kortrijk have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Lommel United 1-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 63%, Kortrijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lommel United) and 59% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and Kortrijk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Lommel United's games and 48% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lommel United and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lommel United's recent games and 59% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Lommel United's recent matches and 74% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United and Kortrijk finished level at 1-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.54 xG and Kortrijk 0.85 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Kortrijk attack 0.66 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 53% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 21%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 54%, Kortrijk 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.36 PPG, Kortrijk 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.