Lokeren-Temse 1-1 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 44%, yet in-form Seraing United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daknamstadion plays host to Lokeren-Temse versus Seraing United in Challenger Pro League (matchday 33). Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lokeren-Temse's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lokeren-Temse's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Seraing United have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Seraing United's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Seraing United arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lokeren-Temse, 1 for Seraing United and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Lokeren-Temse 1–1 Seraing United — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lokeren-Temse — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Seraing United — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 59% versus Seraing United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 50% | Seraing United 52%). Note also that Seraing United surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Lokeren-Temse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.47 xG and Seraing United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.221 / defence 1.055 | Seraing United attack 0.801 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.397. Data: built from Lokeren-Temse's last 59 games and Seraing United's last 58.
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 44% | Draw 26% | Seraing United 30%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 2.28 | Draw 3.88 | Seraing United 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lokeren-Temse are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Seraing United (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lokeren-Temse 90% (last 10 home games) | Seraing United 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 33 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 44% | Draw 26% | Seraing United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.47 / Seraing United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 1.221 / def 1.055 | Seraing United attack 0.801 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Seraing United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United FAQs
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United?
Lokeren-Temse 1 - 1 Seraing United.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 33) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 44% chance of winning, Seraing United a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lokeren-Temse's attack rating (1.22) and Seraing United's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seraing United's attack (0.80x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Lokeren-Temse's last 59 games and Seraing United's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.88
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.65
1.18
Seraing United xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.18 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lokeren-Temse come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 16D 19L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Seraing United sit at 0.97 PPG from 58 outings (12W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Lokeren-Temse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Seraing United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lokeren-Temse's home form reads 10W 10D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Seraing United have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 11D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Current Season
Seraing United
Current Season
Lokeren-Temse (Home) vs Seraing United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lokeren-Temse
Current Season
Seraing United
Current Season
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United Form FAQs
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 23W 16D 19L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 12W 20D 26L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or Seraing United away?
Lokeren-Temse's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.33 PPG; Seraing United away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 14 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lokeren-Temse won Seraing United 0-4 Lokeren-Temse on 18 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Seraing United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Lokeren-Temse
2
Draws
1
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Lokeren-Temse have won 2, Seraing United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Seraing United 0-2 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 57%, Seraing United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lokeren-Temse) and 50% (Seraing United).
On the defensive side: Seraing United in 33%; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 27% of games; Seraing United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Seraing United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 50% of Seraing United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 50% of Seraing United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 63% of Seraing United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 33, as Lokeren-Temse and Seraing United drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.47 xG and Seraing United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 1.22 / defence 1.05 against Seraing United attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 44% | Draw 26% | Seraing United 30%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 50%, Seraing United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (58 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Seraing United's trading profile (58 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.