Liège 0-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liège at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Beerschot VA — this Liège vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beerschot VA travel to Stade de Rocourt to take on Liège in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Liège stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Liège's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across their last 10 games, Beerschot VA have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beerschot VA away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Liège) versus 2.10 (Beerschot VA). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Beerschot VA have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Liège. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended Liège 0–3 Beerschot VA — a Beerschot VA win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Beerschot VA have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Liège in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 55% versus Beerschot VA 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 54% | Beerschot VA 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Liège surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Beerschot VA have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 1.204 / defence 0.913 | Beerschot VA attack 0.899 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.372. Data: built from Liège's last 56 games and Beerschot VA's last 28.
Result probabilities: Liège 46% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 29%. Fair-value odds: Liège 2.19 | Draw 3.89 | Beerschot VA 3.50. Liège hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liège at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liège offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Liège's last 10 home games and Beerschot VA's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Liège 50% (last 10 home games) | Beerschot VA 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 46% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Liège 1.50 / Beerschot VA 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 1.204 / def 0.913 | Beerschot VA attack 0.899 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Liège (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liège vs Beerschot VA FAQs
What time does Liège vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Liège vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Liège 0 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Liège vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs Beerschot VA part of?
Liège vs Beerschot VA is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 46% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Liège the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Liège and Beerschot VA will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liège vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Liège's attack at 1.20x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Liège's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Liège's last 56 games and Beerschot VA's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liège Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.89
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Liège xG
Total xG
2.62
1.13
Beerschot VA xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
15.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liège vs Beerschot VA Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Liège and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Liège and 1.13 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Liège's recent record stands at 23W 12D 21L from 56 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 21L across 56 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Liège on 1.45 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Liège have managed 13W 8D 6L from their last 27 home games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 8W 4D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liège come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Liège are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Blended
Beerschot VA
Current Season
Liège (Home) vs Beerschot VA (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liège
Blended
Beerschot VA
Current Season
❓ Liège vs Beerschot VA Form FAQs
What form are Liège and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 23W 12D 21L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or Beerschot VA away?
Liège's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.74 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Beerschot VA have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Oct 2026, when Beerschot VA won Beerschot VA 5-1 Liège.
Liège's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Liège
0
Draws
5
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Liège vs Beerschot VA H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Beerschot VA?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Liège have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Liège and Beerschot VA last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Beerschot VA 5-1 Liège.
Who has won more matches between Liège and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 59%, Beerschot VA 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Liège) and 56% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liège vs Beerschot VA Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liège and Beerschot VA matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Liège's games and 52% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Liège and Beerschot VA matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Liège's recent games and 56% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liège and Beerschot VA matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Liège's recent matches and 67% of Beerschot VA's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beerschot VA defy the odds to beat Liège 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Liège 0-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.13 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Liège fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Beerschot VA attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 46% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 29%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 54%, Beerschot VA 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liège 1.45 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.