K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Patro Eisden travel to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to take on K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Patro Eisden have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Patro Eisden's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Patro Eisden are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 60% of Patro Eisden's (from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 home games and Patro Eisden's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, K. Lierse S.K. have won 2, Patro Eisden 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended K. Lierse S.K. 1–2 Patro Eisden — a Patro Eisden win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Patro Eisden trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 50% versus Patro Eisden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Patro Eisden 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.890 / defence 1.076 | Patro Eisden attack 0.959 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.375. Data: built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 56 games and Patro Eisden's last 57.
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 29% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 44%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 3.42 | Draw 3.78 | Patro Eisden 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: K. Lierse S.K. 60% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 29% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.10 / Patro Eisden 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.890 / def 1.076 | Patro Eisden attack 0.959 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Patro Eisden xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden FAQs
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 2 Patro Eisden.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 29% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from K. Lierse S.K.'s attack rating (0.89) and Patro Eisden's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 56 games and Patro Eisden's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.78
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.52
1.42
Patro Eisden xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.42 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 13D 23L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.64 PPG from 56 outings (25W 17D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.30 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 12W 7D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 28 away games (12W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.52 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Patro Eisden
Current Season
K. Lierse S.K. (Home) vs Patro Eisden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Patro Eisden
Current Season
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden Form FAQs
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 20W 13D 23L in their last 56 games (1.30 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 25W 17D 14L in their last 56 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.54 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.61 PPG.
Have K. Lierse S.K. or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Feb 2024, when Patro Eisden won Patro Eisden 3-0 K. Lierse S.K..
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
3
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Patro Eisden have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 Patro Eisden.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 50%, Patro Eisden 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 46% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 36%; K. Lierse S.K. have failed to score in 29% of games; Patro Eisden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 54% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent games and 46% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 71% of Patro Eisden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out K. Lierse S.K. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 1.42 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Patro Eisden attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 29% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 44%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 50%, Patro Eisden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.30 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.