🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out K. Lierse S.K. 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Patro Eisden beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.10 xG and Patro Eisden 1.42 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Patro Eisden attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 29% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 44%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 50%, Patro Eisden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.30 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights