Francs Borains 0-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 35%, yet the head-to-head data favours Beerschot VA — this Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Francs Borains and Beerschot VA meet at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Francs Borains (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beerschot VA's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beerschot VA's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.20 for Beerschot VA. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Beerschot VA, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Francs Borains 1–4 Beerschot VA — a Beerschot VA win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Beerschot VA have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 47% versus Beerschot VA 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 51% | Beerschot VA 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Francs Borains surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Beerschot VA have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.92 xG and Beerschot VA 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.702 / defence 0.773 | Beerschot VA attack 0.836 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.349. Francs Borains's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Francs Borains have a tight defence (rating 0.773), which is pulling Beerschot VA's projected output down. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 53 games and Beerschot VA's last 25.
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 35% | Draw 33% | Beerschot VA 32%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.88 | Draw 3.03 | Beerschot VA 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Beerschot VA's lower xG of 0.87 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Francs Borains's last 10 home games and Beerschot VA's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 10% (last 10 home games) | Beerschot VA 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 35% | Draw 33% | Beerschot VA 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Francs Borains 0.92 / Beerschot VA 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.702 / def 0.773 | Beerschot VA attack 0.836 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Beerschot VA xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA FAQs
What time does Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Francs Borains 0 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA part of?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 35% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Francs Borains and Beerschot VA will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.84x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Francs Borains's last 53 games and Beerschot VA's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
35%
2.88
33%
3.03
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
1.79
0.87
Beerschot VA xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Francs Borains and 0.87 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 15W 11D 27L from 53 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 21L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.28 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 7W 6D 13L from their last 26 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 7W 4D 15L across their last 26 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.23 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
Francs Borains (Home) vs Beerschot VA (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Francs Borains
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA Form FAQs
What form are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 15W 11D 27L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Beerschot VA away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.04 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Beerschot VA have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beerschot VA won Beerschot VA 4-1 Francs Borains on 20 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Francs Borains
0
Draws
5
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Francs Borains have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Beerschot VA last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Beerschot VA 3-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 42%, Beerschot VA 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Francs Borains) and 58% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 38% of games; Beerschot VA in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Francs Borains and Beerschot VA matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 54% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Francs Borains's recent games and 58% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Beerschot VA matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 65% of Beerschot VA's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Francs Borains 0-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.92 xG and Beerschot VA 0.87 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.70 / defence 0.77 against Beerschot VA attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 35% | Draw 33% | Beerschot VA 32%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 51%, Beerschot VA 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.06 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.