AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 47%, yet in-form Kortrijk provide a compelling counter-argument — this AS Eupen vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kortrijk travel to Kehrwegstadion to take on AS Eupen in Challenger Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Eupen's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kortrijk stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Kortrijk have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kortrijk are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, AS Eupen have won 1, Kortrijk 3, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended AS Eupen 0–1 Kortrijk — a Kortrijk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 56% versus Kortrijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 60% | Kortrijk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.39 xG and Kortrijk 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.985 / defence 0.956 | Kortrijk attack 0.750 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.342. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 50 games and Kortrijk's last 22.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 47% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 26%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.14 | Draw 3.67 | Kortrijk 3.83. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Eupen at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kortrijk (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 70% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Kortrijk | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 47% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG AS Eupen 1.39 / Kortrijk 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.985 / def 0.956 | Kortrijk attack 0.750 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Kortrijk xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
AS Eupen 1 - 0 Kortrijk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk part of?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 47% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AS Eupen and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will AS Eupen vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 50 games and Kortrijk's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.67
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Kortrijk xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AS Eupen and 0.96 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 13D 21L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Kortrijk's form line: 23W 8D 19L from 50 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 1.22 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 9W 4D 11L from their last 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
AS Eupen (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ AS Eupen vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 23W 8D 19L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Kortrijk away?
AS Eupen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.38 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. They cover more than one competition — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Eupen's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
5
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 2, Kortrijk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 67%, Kortrijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AS Eupen and 62% for Kortrijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Kortrijk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of AS Eupen's games and 50% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Eupen and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AS Eupen's matches and 62% of Kortrijk's.
Do AS Eupen and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 75% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Eupen edge out Kortrijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.39 xG and Kortrijk 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Kortrijk attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 47% | Draw 27% | Kortrijk 26%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 60%, Kortrijk 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.22 PPG, Kortrijk 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Eupen win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.