WSG Wattens 3-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wolfsberger AC travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, WSG Wattens have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of WSG Wattens's games and 70% of Wolfsberger AC's (from WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, WSG Wattens have won 1, Wolfsberger AC 2, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended WSG Wattens 0–0 Wolfsberger AC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 57% and Wolfsberger AC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Wolfsberger AC 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: WSG Wattens surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.986 / defence 0.931 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.935 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing WSG Wattens's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.93 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 4.49. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 60% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.64 / Wolfsberger AC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.986 / def 0.931 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.935 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Wolfsberger AC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
WSG Wattens 3 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 25) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 52% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.99) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.85
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.64
1.00
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
23.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.00 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 15W 16D 25L from 56 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 20L across 56 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.09 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 8W 10D 10L from their last 28 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.64 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
WSG Wattens (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 15W 16D 25L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 13D 20L in their last 56 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.21 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won Wolfsberger AC 4-1 WSG Wattens.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Wolfsberger AC 0-2 WSG Wattens.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 54%, Wolfsberger AC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (WSG Wattens) and 57% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of WSG Wattens's games and 61% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 57% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 86% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Wolfsberger AC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.09 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.