🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Grazer AK and FC BW Linz meet at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK's home record at Merkur-Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC BW Linz (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Grazer AK. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Grazer AK, 1 for FC BW Linz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Grazer AK winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 62% versus FC BW Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 55% | FC BW Linz 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.050 / defence 1.044 | FC BW Linz attack 0.774 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | FC BW Linz 4.35. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Grazer AK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Grazer AK 70% | FC BW Linz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights