WSG Wattens 1-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 37%, yet in-form Wolfsberger AC provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, WSG Wattens have won 0, Wolfsberger AC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–4 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 54% versus Wolfsberger AC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Wolfsberger AC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.26 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.814 / defence 1.247 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.920 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 37% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 32%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Wolfsberger AC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 50% | Wolfsberger AC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 37% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG WSG Wattens 1.26 / Wolfsberger AC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.814 / def 1.247 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.920 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Wolfsberger AC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 37% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (2 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 2W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.81) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.31
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.42
1.16
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.16 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 14W 10D 30L from 54 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 23L across 54 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 0.96 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 6W 7D 14L from 27 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 12W 6D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.48 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 14W 10D 30L in their last 54 games (0.96 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 11D 23L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.93 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 56%, Wolfsberger AC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (WSG Wattens) and 63% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 52% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of WSG Wattens's matches and 63% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 1-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.26 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 37% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 32%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Wolfsberger AC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.96 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.