FC BW Linz 0-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Austria Lustenau at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC BW Linz have posted 2W 5D 3L at Hofmann Personal Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at Hofmann Personal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC BW Linz at 0.60 PPG versus Austria Lustenau's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC BW Linz have won 0, Austria Lustenau 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Austria Lustenau winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Austria Lustenau trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Austria Lustenau 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 41% | Austria Lustenau 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.47 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.832 / defence 1.184 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.838 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing FC BW Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 FC BW Linz games / 44 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 29% | Austria Lustenau 25%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Lustenau 4.00. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC BW Linz at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC BW Linz 50% | Austria Lustenau 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 29% | Austria Lustenau 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG FC BW Linz 1.47 / Austria Lustenau 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.832 / def 1.184 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.838 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Austria Lustenau xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
FC BW Linz 0 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau part of?
FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 46% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau?
Record (2 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC BW Linz's attack rating (0.83) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.46
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.47
1.01
Austria Lustenau xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.01 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 4W 7D 11L from 22 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 16L across 22 games — 0.45 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC BW Linz by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Lustenau heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 2W 6D 3L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Lustenau's away record stands at 1W 4D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC BW Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 0.59 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 27%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 games (0.86 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 4D 16L in their last 22 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Austria Lustenau away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.09 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau?
From 4 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 0, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 54%, Austria Lustenau 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for FC BW Linz and 27% for Austria Lustenau.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 27% of games; Austria Lustenau in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 27% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 27% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC BW Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz and Austria Lustenau finished level at 0-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.47 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.01 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Austria Lustenau landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 29% | Austria Lustenau 25%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 41%, Austria Lustenau 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC BW Linz arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.