SCR Altach 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 37%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Austria Vienna travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach at CASHPOINT Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — SCR Altach are significantly better at CASHPOINT Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 2, Austria Vienna 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 46% | Austria Vienna 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.12 xG and Austria Vienna 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.769 / defence 0.986 | Austria Vienna attack 0.995 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 30%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Austria Vienna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 40% | Austria Vienna 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG SCR Altach 1.12 / Austria Vienna 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.769 / def 0.986 | Austria Vienna attack 0.995 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Austria Vienna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 37% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Record (4 meetings): SCR Altach 2W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 2W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.77) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
37%
2.70
33%
3.07
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.12
0.99
Austria Vienna xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.99 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 54 games, going 10W 17D 27L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.46 PPG from 54 outings (21W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 6W 8D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.57 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 10W 17D 27L in their last 54 games (0.87 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.96 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 48%, Austria Vienna 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (SCR Altach) and 63% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of SCR Altach's games and 63% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of SCR Altach's recent games and 63% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 1, as SCR Altach and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.12 xG and Austria Vienna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Austria Vienna attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 37% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 30%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 46%, Austria Vienna 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.