WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of WSG Wattens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 0-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 0.82 xG and Sturm Graz 1.10 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.63 / defence 0.81 against Sturm Graz attack 1.18 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 41%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 47%, Sturm Graz 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights