WSG Wattens 0-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as WSG Wattens face Sturm Graz.

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Match Analysis

WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tivoli Stadion Tirol. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–4 with Sturm Graz winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 45% versus Sturm Graz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 47% | Sturm Graz 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 0.82 xG and Sturm Graz 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.631 / defence 0.805 | Sturm Graz attack 1.183 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.153. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 WSG Wattens games / 37 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 41%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Sturm Graz 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 20% | Sturm Graz 80%.

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