WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.63x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
27%
3.75
32%
3.11
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
1.92
1.10
Sturm Graz xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.10 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.