Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz meet at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sturm Graz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 1 for Sturm Graz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 71% and Sturm Graz 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 76% | Sturm Graz 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 0.93 xG and Sturm Graz 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.971 / defence 1.056 | Sturm Graz attack 1.027 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.430. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Wolfsberger AC games / 31 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 19% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 49%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | Sturm Graz 2.04. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 19% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Wolfsberger AC 0.93 / Sturm Graz 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.971 / def 1.056 | Sturm Graz attack 1.027 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sturm Graz xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 19% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
Record (2 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.03x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
19%
5.16
32%
3.14
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.55
Sturm Graz xG
5.16
19%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
24.31
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.55 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 15W 9D 17L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 26W 9D 6L from 41 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wolfsberger AC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 11W 6D 3L from 20 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.78 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 26W 9D 6L in their last 41 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 0.95 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Sturm Graz have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Wolfsberger AC, 60% for Sturm Graz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wolfsberger AC and 45% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 5% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 60% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 45% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 0.93 xG and Sturm Graz 1.55 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Sturm Graz attack 1.03 / defence 0.77, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 19% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 49%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 76%, Sturm Graz 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.