Wolfsberger AC 0-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 50%, yet in-form Ried provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wolfsberger AC welcome Ried to Lavanttal-Arena in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 26). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Wolfsberger AC have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ried — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ried have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ried's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Wolfsberger AC's last 10 home games and Ried's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, Ried 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Wolfsberger AC 0–1 Ried — a Ried win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ried trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 68% and Ried 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 64% | Ried 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.67 xG and Ried 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.085 / defence 1.112 | Ried attack 0.871 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and Ried's last 22.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.01 | Draw 3.90 | Ried 4.06. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ried (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Wolfsberger AC's last 10 home games and Ried's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 80% (last 10 home games) | Ried 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 26 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.67 / Ried 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.085 / def 1.112 | Ried attack 0.871 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ried xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Ried FAQs
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 0 Ried.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 26) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 50% chance of winning, Ried a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Ried will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and Ried's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.90
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.11
Ried xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
5%
21.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Ried Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.11 for Ried, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 11L across 25 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.08 PPG, Ried on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 4W 4D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 4W 1D 7L across their last 12 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.32 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Ried
Blended
Wolfsberger AC (Home) vs Ried (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Ried Form FAQs
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Ried have gone 10W 4D 11L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Ried away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.33 PPG; Ried away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Ried have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2026, when Ried won Ried 4-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Ried specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Ried H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Ried have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Ried last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Ried 4-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wolfsberger AC at 67%, Ried at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wolfsberger AC and 58% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Ried Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolfsberger AC and Ried matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 67% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wolfsberger AC and Ried matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 58% of Ried's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Ried matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 75% of Ried's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wolfsberger AC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lavanttal-Arena, Relegation Group - 26, as Wolfsberger AC and Ried drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.67 xG and Ried 1.11 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Ried landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 64%, Ried 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.08 PPG, Ried 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.