Wolfsberger AC 0-0 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 48%, yet in-form FC BW Linz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC BW Linz travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (Relegation Group - 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC BW Linz — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 3 for FC BW Linz and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2026, ended Wolfsberger AC 1–2 FC BW Linz — a FC BW Linz win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
FC BW Linz trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 64% versus FC BW Linz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 60% | FC BW Linz 55%). Note also that FC BW Linz surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Wolfsberger AC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.50 xG and FC BW Linz 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.082 / defence 1.108 | FC BW Linz attack 0.790 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. FC BW Linz's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.09 | Draw 3.64 | FC BW Linz 4.06. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC BW Linz (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 27 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.50 / FC BW Linz 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.082 / def 1.108 | FC BW Linz attack 0.790 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC BW Linz xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz FAQs
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 0 FC BW Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Group - 27) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 48% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against FC BW Linz's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, FC BW Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wolfsberger AC's last 44 games and FC BW Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.64
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
FC BW Linz xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
6%
18.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.00 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 14D 21L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 1.02 PPG from 58 outings (17W 8D 33L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Wolfsberger AC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wolfsberger AC's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.66 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.16 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC (Home) vs FC BW Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz Form FAQs
What form are Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 17W 8D 33L in their last 58 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or FC BW Linz away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.52 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won Wolfsberger AC 3-0 FC BW Linz.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting FC BW Linz specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 66%, FC BW Linz 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wolfsberger AC) and 52% (FC BW Linz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs FC BW Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 55% of FC BW Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 52% of FC BW Linz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 72% of FC BW Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wolfsberger AC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lavanttal-Arena, Relegation Group - 27, as Wolfsberger AC and FC BW Linz drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.50 xG and FC BW Linz 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC BW Linz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against FC BW Linz attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 27% | FC BW Linz 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 60%, FC BW Linz 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.