TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 51% versus Wolfsberger AC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 46% | Wolfsberger AC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.798 / defence 1.232 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.807 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 TSV Hartberg games / 27 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 36% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Wolfsberger AC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
TSV Hartberg dominate the H2H record, yet Wolfsberger AC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 60% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 36% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.21 / Wolfsberger AC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.798 / def 1.232 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.807 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 36% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 5W | Draws 2 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.80x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.27
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.36
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.15 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 12W 12D 13L from 37 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 15L across 37 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.30 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.05 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, Wolfsberger AC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (TSV Hartberg) and 63% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 32% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of TSV Hartberg's games and 63% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 63% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.