Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg meet at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 October 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.40 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, TSV Hartberg have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Grazer AK's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 56% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 61% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.25 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.743 / defence 0.835 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Grazer AK games / 31 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 35% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 35% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Grazer AK 1.25 / TSV Hartberg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.743 / def 0.835 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.13
TSV Hartberg xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 35% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
Record (6 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 3 | TSV Hartberg 3W.
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.74x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.04x) against Grazer AK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
35%
2.82
35%
2.89
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.38
1.13
TSV Hartberg xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.13 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 13D 17L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 13W 14D 14L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.29 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (7W 10D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 8D 5L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.55 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 0-3 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
3
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 70%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Grazer AK) and 45% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 35%; TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Grazer AK's games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Grazer AK's recent games and 45% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.