Sturm Graz vs Ried – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face Ried.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Ried at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur-Arena: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ried have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ried in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Ried, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Ried in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Ried 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | Ried 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.40 xG and Ried 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.194 / defence 0.852 | Ried attack 0.999 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 Sturm Graz games / 31 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 64% | Draw 22% | Ried 14%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Ried 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 64% | Draw 22% | Ried 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Sturm Graz 2.40 / Ried 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.194 / def 0.852 | Ried attack 0.999 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ried xG
63%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Ried kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Ried is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Ried part of?
Sturm Graz vs Ried is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 64% chance of winning, Ried a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sturm Graz and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
Record (6 meetings): Sturm Graz 4W | Draws 2 | Ried 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Ried in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.50
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.51
1.11
Ried xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
9%
11.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
1%
79.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.11 for Ried, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 21W 10D 10L from 41 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 16L across 41 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.78 PPG, Ried on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 9W 6D 5L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.34 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Ried in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while Ried have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Ried away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.65 PPG; Ried away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Ried been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ried in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Ried specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
From 6 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Ried have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Ried?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 60%, Ried 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sturm Graz) and 55% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Ried in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sturm Graz's games and 65% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 55% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Ried tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ried in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.