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Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.54 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Sturm Graz attack 1.34 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 44%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 49%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights