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Stalemate at TSV Hartberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 19, as TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and SCR Altach 1.08 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SCR Altach landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against SCR Altach attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 48%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SCR Altach's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights