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Shock result as Red Bull Salzburg defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (34 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (34 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights