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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.80 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

TSV Hartberg trading profile (34 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (34 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Red Bull Salzburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.978 / defence 1.009 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.017 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.264. Data: 24 TSV Hartberg games / 24 Red Bull Salzburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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